"Crude oil prices have doubled since 2001, but oil companies have increased their budgets for exploring new oil fields by only a small fraction."
By Mark Williams M.I.T.'s TechnologyReview.com
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"We now find one barrel of oil for every four we consume. The general
situation seems so obvious."
Dr. Colin Campbell, ASPO president |
Table of contents
The end of the age of oil
Advantages of hydronic radiant heating systems
Heating and Hotwater Cost per year for Single-Family-Houses in New England
Glossary of solar heating terms
THE END OF THE AGE OF OIL
By David Goodstein
The curve for oil usage, as you can see, is a rising curve and will
become a bell-shaped curve eventually. Note that for the last quarter
century, we've been using oil faster than we have been discovering it.
World reserves should have decreased during that time by about 200
billion barrels. Instead, as we've seen, they've increased by 400
billion barrels. In any case, it should be possible, given this much
information, to make a prediction similar to the one that Hubbert made
for the continental United States for worldwide oil production.
One such estimate was published in 1998 in Scientific American. It
predicts that we will have a worldwide maximum in oil production just
about now-around the middle of the decade 2000-2010. What will happen
when we reach that peak we don't really know. But we had a foretaste in
1973 and '79 when the OPEC countries took advantage of the supply
shortage in the United States and shut down the valve a bit. What
happened, as you may recall, is that we had instant panic and despair
for the future of our way of life, and mile-long lines at gas stations.
We don't know what's going to happen at the next peak, but we do know
that those past peaks were artificial and temporary. The next one will
not be artificial and it will not be temporary.
Advantages of hydronic radiant heating systems
You take control of your own comfort!
We offer you the best heat distribution for comfort, energy and
savings. Our systems optimize heating patterns for different zones,
rooms or floor materials. Rooms always maintain the set temperature to
eliminate chilly floors or overheated ceilings. Whether you have
carpeting, hardwood, tile or stone, your floors will always be
comfortably warm. No more cold feet.
This illustration clearly shows how closely the temperature
distribution follows the ideal heating curve, according to scientists.
The ideal temperature for comfort is 73˚F / 23˚C at foot level
and 67˚F / 19˚C at head level. Compared to other systems, in-floor
hydronic radiant heating
provides superior heat distribution (see chart), especially in rooms
with high or vaulted ceilings.
Energy savings
Room temperatures can be reduced by as much as 5˚F without sacrificing
comfort. For a typical home this means you can save up to 30% on heating.
When doors are closed, up to 50% of the heat will be recovered instantly.
Half of the total heat is provided by radiation, which travels at the
speed of light.
Cost savings
Nobis Low-Cost heating systems are easy to design, and can be installed quickly. Your
certified nobis system installer has ready access to world-class
technical support, heating system design data and engineering.
Quiet operation, health and safety issues
Water is far denser than air so it carries much more heat. Additionally,
the water runs slowly through noise-absorbing plastic tubing. Small
residential circulators are so quiet they can't even be heard
in the utility room. Radiant heating minimizes air movement, which
reduces drafts in the home.
As a result, dust, germs, viruses and mold aren't spread around the
home. Allergy sufferers
can breathe a sigh of relief.
Decorating freedom
The entire system is hidden, and there are no obstructions to interfere
with the use of the room.
There will be consistent heating throughout the entire house without any
design restrictions.
Comfortable basements
What was once a damp, often chilly room can quickly be turned into a
comfortable prime living area. Warm floors keep rooms dry and basement
floors are now as comfortable as the floors on
any other level.
Warm floors never stay wet
Water on the bathroom floor? No problem. Snow and ice in the garage?
Don't worry. Nobis radiant heating ensures that, if wet, your floors -
and shoes, towels and clothes - will dry faster,
and stay dry longer; which helps to eliminate mold, mildew and pesky,
unwanted odors.
Heating and Hotwater Cost per year for Single-Family-Houses in New England
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Oil and Natural Gas compared to Solar Radiant Heat
System from nobis Inc. |
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Oil, Nat. Gas |
nobis solar |
Oil, Nat. Gas |
nobis solar |
Oil, Nat. Gas |
nobis solar |
Oil, Nat. Gas |
nobis solar |
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house 1 |
house 1 |
house 2 |
house 2 |
house 3 |
house 3 |
house 4 |
house 4 |
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Sq Ft |
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1.500 |
1.500 |
2.500 |
2.500 |
3.500 |
3.500 |
4.500 |
4.500 |
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Energy loss per year (kwh) |
35.000 |
35.000 |
55.000 |
55.000 |
70.000 |
70.000 |
80.000 |
80.000 |
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Oil Price/Gallon |
$1,00 |
$921,05 |
$760,00 |
$1.447,37 |
$980,00 |
$1.842,11 |
$1.220,00 |
$2.105,26 |
$1.460,00 |
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$2,00 |
$1.842,11 |
$760,00 |
$2.894,74 |
$980,00 |
$3.684,21 |
$1.220,00 |
$4.210,53 |
$1.460,00 |
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$3,00 |
$2.763,16 |
$760,00 |
$4.342,11 |
$980,00 |
$5.526,32 |
$1.220,00 |
$6.315,79 |
$1.460,00 |
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$4,00 |
$3.684,21 |
$760,00 |
$5.789,47 |
$980,00 |
$7.368,42 |
$1.220,00 |
$8.421,05 |
$1.460,00 |
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Heating and Hotwater Cost for the next 10 year periode
for Single-Family-Houses |
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Oil Price/Gallon |
$3,00 |
$27.631,58 |
$7.600,00 |
$43.421,05 |
$9.800,00 |
$55.263,16 |
$12.200,00 |
$63.157,89 |
$14.600,00 |
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$4,00 |
$36.842,11 |
$7.600,00 |
$57.894,74 |
$9.800,00 |
$73.684,21 |
$12.200,00 |
$84.210,53 |
$14.600,00 |
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Heating and Hotwater Cost per kwh |
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Oil, Nat. Gas |
nobis solar |
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1 KW |
= |
3412.14 BTU |
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Oil Price/Gallon |
$1,00 |
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$0,026 |
$0,018 |
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= |
0.03413 Therm |
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$2,00 |
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$0,053 |
$0,018 |
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1 BTU |
= |
0.000293 kw |
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$3,00 |
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$0,079 |
$0,018 |
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1 Therm |
= |
29.3 kw |
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$4,00 |
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$0,105 |
$0,018 |
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1 Gal Oil |
= |
39 kw |
You can download this table as PDF-document
Glossary of solar heating terms
Absorber The blackened surface in a
collector that absorbs the solar radiation and converts it to heat
energy.
Absorptance The ratio of solar energy
absorbed by a surface to the solar energy striking it.
Active System A solar heating or
cooling system that requires external mechanical power to move the
collected heat.
Air System
Solar domestic hot water systems employing air-type collectors are
available. Hot air generated by these collectors is fan forced through
an air-to-liquid heat exchanger with the potable water being pumped
through the liquid section of the exchanger. The heated water is then
circulated through the storage tank in a similar fashion to the liquid
collector system. Air does not need to be protected from freezing or
boiling, is non-corrosive, and is free. However, air ducts and air
handling units require greater space than piping, and air leaks are
difficult to detect.
Air-Type Collector A collector that
uses air as the heat transfer fluid.
Altitude The angular distance from the
horizon to the sun.
Ambient Temperature The temperature of
the surrounding air.
ASHRAE Abbreviation for the American
Society of Heating and Air-Conditioning Engineers.
Auxiliary Heat The extra heat provided
by a conventional heating system for periods of
cloudiness or intense cold when a solar heating system cannot provide
enough.
Azimuth The angular distance between
true south and the point on the horizon directly below the sun.
British Thermal Unit (BTU) The quantity
of heat needed to raise the temperature of one pound of water one degree
Fahrenheit.
Calorie The quantity of heat needed to
raise the temperature of one gram of water one degree Celsius.
Coefficient of Heat Transmission The
rate of heat loss in BTU per hour through a square foot wall or other
building surface when the difference between indoor and outdoor air
temperatures is one degree Fahrenheit.
Collector A
device that collects solar radiation and converts it to heat.
Collector Efficiency The ratio of
usable heat energy extracted from a collector to the solar energy
striking the cover.
Concentrating Collector A device which
concentrates the sun's rays on an absorber surface which is
significantly smaller than the overall collector area.
Conductance The rate of heat flow (in
BTUs per hour) through an object when a 1°F. temperature difference is
maintained between the sides of the object.
Conduction The flow of heat due to
temperature variations within a material.
Conductivity A measure of the ability
of a material to permit conduction of heat flow through it.
Convection The motion of fluid such as
gas or liquid by which heat may be transported.
Cover Plate A sheet of glass or
transparent plastic placed above the absorber in a flat plate collector.
Degree Day A unit that represents a
1 degree F. deviation from some fixed reference point (usually 65°F.) in
the mean daily outdoor temperature.
Design Heat Load The total heat loss
from a house under the most severe winter conditions likely to occur.
Design Temperature The temperature
close to the lowest expected for a location, used to determine the
design heat load.
Diffuse Radiation Indirect sunlight
that is scattered from air molecules, dust and water vapor.
Direct Radiation Solar radiation that
comes straight from the sun, casting shadows on a clear day.
Drain down System Potable water is
circulated from the storage tank through the collector loop. Freeze
protection is provided by solenoid valves opening and dumping the water
at a preset low temperature. Collectors and piping must be pitched so
that the system can drain down, and must be assembled carefully to
withstand 100 psi. city water line pressures. Pressure reducing valves
are recommended when city water pressure is greater than the working
pressure of the system.
Drain back System The solar heat
transfer fluid automatically drains into a tank by gravity. Drain back
systems are available in one or two tank configurations. A heat
exchanger is necessary, because the city inlet pressure would prevent
draining. The heat transfer fluid in the collector loop may be distilled
or city water if the loop plumbing is copper. If the plumbing is
threaded galvanized pipe, inhibitors may be added to prevent corrosion.
Most inhibitors are non-potable and require a double wall heat
exchanger. The pump used must be sized to overcome static head.
Emittance A measure of the propensity
of a material to emit thermal radiation.
Eutectic Salts A group of materials
that melt at low temperatures, absorbing large quantities of heat.
Flat Plate Collector A solar collection
device in which sunlight is converted into heat on a plane surface
without the aid of reflecting surfaces to concentrate the rays.
Forced Convection The transfer of heat
by the flow of fluids (such as air or water) driven by fans, blowers or
pumps.
Galvanic Corrosion A condition caused
as a result of a conducting liquid making contact with two different
metal which are not properly isolated physically and/or electrically.
Getters A column or cartridge
containing an active metal which will be sacrificed to protect some
other metal in the system against galvanic corrosion.
Glaubers Salt
Sodium sulfate a eutectic salt that melts at 90°F. and absorbs about 104
Btu per pound as it does so.
Gravity Convection The natural movement
of heat that occurs when a warm fluid rises and a cool fluid sinks under
the influence of gravity.
Headers The
pipe that runs across the edge of an array of solar collectors,
gathering or distributing the heat transfer fluid from, or to the risers
in the individual collectors. This insures that equal flow rates and
pressure are maintained.
Heat Capacity A property of a
material denoting its ability to absorb heat.
Heat Exchanger A device, such as a
coiled copper tube immersed in a tank of water, that is used to transfer
heat from one fluid to another through a separating wall.
Heat Storage A device or medium that
absorbs collected solar heat and stores it for use during periods of
inclement or cold weather.
Heat Storage Capacity The amount of
heat which can be stored by a material.
Heating Season The period from early
fall to late spring (in the northern hemisphere) during which additional
heat is needed to keep a house comfortable for its occupants.
Heat Pump A mechanical device that
transfers heat from one medium to another, thereby cooling the first and
warming the second.
Heat Sink A medium or container to
which heat flows.
Heat Source A medium or container from
which heat flows.
Hybrid Solar Energy System A system
that uses both active and passive methods in its operation.
Indirect System A solar heating or
cooling system in which the solar heat is collected exterior to the
building and transferred inside using ducts or piping and, usually fans
or ducts.
Infrared Radiation Electromagnetic
radiation from the sun that has wavelengths slightly longer than visible
light.
Insolation The total amount of solar
radiation direct, diffused and reflected-striking a surface exposed to
the sky.
Insulation A material with high
resistance (R-value) to heat flow.
Langley A measure of solar radiation;
equal to one calorie per square centimeter.
Liquid Type Collector A collector using
a liquid as the heat transfer fluid.
Natural Convection See Gravity
Convection.
Nocturnal Cooling The cooling of a
building or heat storage device by the radiation of excess heat into the
night sky.
One-Tank Closed-Loop System
A conventional DHW tank, usually electrically heated, is
converted to a solar DHW storage tank by installing an external heat
exchanger coil. The lower electrical element is removed, leaving the
uppermost of the usual two elements to provide auxiliary water heating
and to achieve good stratification (layering of hotter water over
progressively colder water).
Open System Some part of the System is
open to the atmosphere, or system contains fresh or changeable water.
Passive System A solar heating or
cooling system that uses no external mechanical power to move the
collected solar heat.
Percentage of Possible Sunshine The
percentage of daytime hours during which there is enough direct solar
radiation to cast a shadow.
Photosynthesis The conversion of solar
energy to chemical energy, by the action of chlorophyll in plants and
algae.
Photovoltaic Cells Semi conductor
devices that convert solar energy into electricity.
Pyranometer An instrument for measuring
solar radiation.
Radiant Panels Panels with integral
passages for the flow of warm fluids, either air or liquids. Heat from
the fluid is conducted through the metal and transferred to the rooms by
thermal radiation.
Radiation The flow of energy through
open space via electromagnetic waves, such as visible light.
Reflected Radiation Sunlight that is
reflected from surrounding trees, terrain or buildings onto a surface
exposed to the sky.
Refrigerant A
liquid such as Freon that is use in cooling devices to absorb heat from
surrounding air or liquids as it evaporates.
Resistance, or R Value The tendency of
a material to retard the flow of heat.
Retrofitting The application of a solar
heating or cooling system to an existing building.
Risers The flow channels or pipes
that distribute the heat transfer liquid across the face of an absorber.
Seasonal Efficiency The ratio, over an
entire heating season, of solar energy collected and used to the solar
energy striking the collector.
Selective Surface
A surface that absorbs radiation of one wavelength (for example,
sunlight) but emits little radiation of another wavelength (for example,
infrared); used as a coating for absorber plates.
Shading Coefficient
The ratio of the solar heat gain through a specific glazing
system to the total solar heat gain through a single layer of clear
double-strength glass.
Solar Constant The average intensity of
solar radiation reaching the earth outside the atmosphere; accounting to
two langleys or 1.94 gram-calories per square centimeter, equal to 442.4
BTU/hr/ft.², or 1395 watts/m².
Solar Radiation (Solar Energy)
Electromagnetic radiation emitted by the sun.
Solar Rights A legal issue concerning
the right of access to sunlight.
Specific Heat
The quantity of heat, in BTU, needed to raise the temperature of one
pound of a material 1°F.
Standby Heat Loss Heat lost though
storage tank and piping walls.
Sun Path Diagram A circular projection
of the sky vault, similar to a map, that can be used to determine solar
positions and to calculate shading.
Thermal Capacity
The quantity of heat needed to warm a collector up to its
operating temperature.
Thermal Mass or Thermal Inertia The
tendency of a building with large quantities of heavy materials to
remain at the same temperature or to fluctuate only very slowly; also
the overall heat storage capacity of the building.
Thermal Radiation Electromagnetic
radiation emitted by a warm body.
Thermistor Sensing device which changes
its electrical resistance according to temperature. Used in the control
system to generate input data on collector and storage temperatures.
Thermosyphoning The process that makes
water circulate automatically between a warm collector and a cooler
storage tank above it. (See Gravity Convection).
Tilt Angle The angle that a flat plate
collector surface forms with the horizontal plane.
Trickle Type Collector
A collector in which the heat transfer liquid flows through metal
tubes which are fastened to the absorber plate by solder, clamps or
other means. (See Collector).
Tube-in-Plate-Absorber A metal absorber
plate in which the heat transfer fluid flows through passages formed in
the plate itself.
Tube-Type Collector A collector in
which the heat transfer fluid flows through metal tubes that are
fastened to the absorber plate with solder, clamps or other means. (See
Collector).
Ultraviolet Radiation Electromagnetic
radiation with wavelengths slightly shorter than visible light.
